AGENDA #7
|
to: |
Roger L. Stancil, Town Manager |
|
from: |
J.B. Culpepper, Planning Director David Bonk, Long Range Planning and Transportation Coordinator |
|
subject: |
Draft Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan Socio-Economic Projections |
|
date: |
March 5, 2007 |
The purpose of this memorandum is to summarize the draft Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan Socio-Economic projections. Adoption of the attached resolution will provide comments from the Council to the Transportation Advisory Committee on the draft projections.
The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization has begun the process to revise the adopted 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan. The 2030 Plan was endorsed by the Council on January 26, 2004 and adopted by the Transportation Advisory Committee on April 13, 2005. Federal regulations require that regional transportation plans be updated every four years. Regional transportation plans include socio-economic growth projections, including housing and employment projections, for a minimum 20-year timeframe. All jurisdictions within the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area are required to prepare 2035 projections. The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization planning area includes all of Durham County; the southeastern portion of Orange County including Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, and some unincorporated areas; and the northeastern portion of Chatham County, stopping just north of Pittsboro (Attachment 2). The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization is also preparing 2035 projections in conjunction with the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization. The Triangle J Council of Government is coordinating the preparation of the projections for both urban areas.
The Council approved the Chapel Hill draft 2035 projections on December 4, 2006 (Attachment 1). On January 10, 2007, the Transportation Advisory Committee released a series of charts and maps summarizing the 2035 projections for the entire urban area for public comment (Attachments 3 and 4). Public workshops have been held in Durham, Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough and the data are also available on the Durham-Chapel-Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization website at the link that follows http://www.dchcmpo.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=49&Itemid=35 Staff from the affected jurisdictions have begun internal and peer review of the projections.
The 2002 base year population estimates from the adopted 2030 Plan were expanded to 2005 by identifying certificates of occupancy issued between July 2002 and July 2005 and adding them to the housing estimates from 2002. Population is estimated using housing vacancy rates and average persons per household statistics.
Employment estimates for 2005 were provided by InfoUSA, a commercial data service purchased by the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization. The InfoUSA information was reviewed and edited by staff from all jurisdictions. Staff edits included: removing erroneous data, locating businesses on the correct land parcels, removing double-counting, and ensuring that the appropriate employment totals were listed within the correct jurisdictions.
The area used in the Triangle Regional Model is somewhat larger than the Metropolitan Planning Organization boundaries, as it includes traffic analysis zones that include, but may also extend beyond, the municipal boundaries of the member jurisdictions.
The following table shows the socio-economic projections for the 2035 Plan update. This is the first time the Council has reviewed the estimates from all jurisdictions.
|
Jurisdiction |
Population |
Employment |
||||
|
2005 |
2035 |
% inc. |
2005 |
2035 |
% inc. |
|
|
Chatham County* |
34,629 |
153,362 |
343% |
8,196 |
16,953 |
107% |
|
Durham County |
229,796 |
370,007 |
61% |
172,825 |
308,886 |
79% |
|
Carrboro |
21,328 |
26,879 |
26% |
4,320 |
6,751 |
56% |
|
Chapel Hill |
52,394 |
81,297 |
55% |
35,314 |
81,227 |
130% |
|
Hillsborough |
12,651 |
22,613 |
79% |
5,762 |
14,606 |
153% |
|
Orange County** |
43,739 |
55,537 |
27% |
3,946 |
7,255 |
84% |
*Includes the portion of Chatham County that is in the Triangle Regional Model area.
**Includes the unincorporated areas of Orange County, i.e., NOT including Chapel Hill, Carrboro and Hillsborough.
In addition to population and employment increases within Chapel Hill the growth of the surrounding area will also have transportation impacts on the Town. We have summarized below several observations concerning the draft projections.
All jurisdictions in the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban area project employment growth, ranging from a 56 percent increase in Carrboro to a 153 percent increase in Hillsborough over the 30-year period. With the exception of Chatham County, every jurisdiction has projected a higher percentage of employment growth than population growth over the 30-year period. While most communities will remain primarily residential in nature, the projections reflect increased employment growth.
One indicator of balanced economic growth is the relationship of jobs to housing within a jurisdiction. While the general goal is to achieve a 1:1 relationship between jobs and housing there is no guarantee that residents who live in a community will also work in the same community, due to variations in job type and demographics. Depending on the type, employment growth in communities that are predominantly residential may reduce some of the need for regional commuting, but could also increase other commuting needs. It is unclear what impact the regional employment growth will have on travel to and through Chapel Hill.
The projections for Chatham County indicate a population increase of approximately 119,000 people, a 343 percent increase over the 2005 base year. This estimate is significantly higher than the projections from the 2030 Plan. The 2030 population projection for Chatham County was 62,879. We understand that the population projections were developed by first including the count of existing dwelling units and adding projects included in approved Master Plans and currently under consideration by the County for approval. The average county density of approximately one unit per 2.5 acres was then applied to the remainder of the developable land (not including conservation or other environmentally sensitive areas), based on estimates of what percentage of that land would develop. We have recently determined that these projections represent growth under full buildout conditions, rather than by 2035. We are in the process of seeking more detailed information to confirm the actual 2035 projections. However, we understand that the density assumptions upon which these estimates are based are somewhat conservative, considering that many of the recent projects have included higher overall residential densities than this average. Therefore, even if these estimates represent final buildout conditions rather than 2035 development, the numbers may not be too far off.
The Chatham County projections are relatively modest in terms of employment, when compared to population growth. Chatham County projects a 107 percent growth in employment (8,757 jobs), with a corresponding 343 percent growth in population (118,733 people). We believe that these totals may be underestimating the growth of employment, particularly for retail and other services intended to directly support the increase in population. For example, the zone with the highest projected population growth (greater than 10,000 residents) shows no projected increase in employment. We understand that these estimates assume current zoning conditions, which do not allow non-residential uses in many areas. We believe that there will be proposals for non-residential rezoning to provide retail services to support the residential growth. The growth of employment resulting from these rezonings is not reflected in the projections. The discrepancy between population and employment may also indicate that residents of Chatham County will commute to the other towns and counties to work, often traveling to or through Chapel Hill.
Overall, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the Chatham County projections.
The Town of Hillsborough is projecting a nearly 80 percent increase in population (9,962 residents) and 153 percent increase in employment (8,844 jobs) over the 30-year period. It appears that the majority of the employment and residential growth will be directed toward the area between I-40 and I-85, and the old Daniel Boone Village area (northeast corner of old NC 86 and I-85). Growth is not targeted toward the NC 86/US 70 bypass intersection area because there are no highway expansions planned in the mid-term for that area. The impact of this increased growth in the Hillsborough area may result in additional travel demand between this area and Chapel Hill.
The Town of Carrboro is projecting a relatively modest 26 percent increase in population (5,551 residents) and 56 percent increase in employment (2,431 jobs) over the 30-year period. Employment growth appears to be projected primarily in the downtown area as well as the areas adjacent to the new high school on Smith Level Road and the new elementary school expected to be built near the Old NC 86/Homestead Road intersection. The largest increases in residential growth are projected for the northern areas of the town. We understand that Carrboro is considering a short-term moratorium on growth and a more detailed study of its northern area.
Durham County is projecting a 61 percent increase in population (140,211 residents) and a 79 percent increase in employment (136,061 jobs) over the 30-year period. The majority of the employment growth is projected for the eastern portion of the County, adjacent to Wake County, with a small area of relatively higher employment growth adjacent to Chapel Hill near the I-40 and US 15-501 interchange. Population growth along the Chapel Hill border is mostly fairly modest, with the exception of the southwest area along NC 54. This area projects relatively high population growth, which may have travel impacts on Chapel Hill. Also, given the designation of a station on the fixed guideway transit system in this area, we believe that the projections may underestimate future employment in Southwest Durham.
There are several Traffic Analysis Zones that contain portions of both Chapel Hill and Durham. Upon review of the maps, it is unclear whether these zones that contain both jurisdictions accurately reflect projected growth for both areas.
The Durham-Chapel-Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization service area does not include Alamance County. We believe that the Burlington-Mebane area will continue to experience residential and job growth. Current employment data from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill indicates that significant numbers of employees reside in Alamance County and that trend is expected to continue. It is likely that growth in that area will impact travel patterns and regional transit opportunities into and through the Chapel Hill Area.
The Council’s comments on the Draft 2035 Socio-Economic Projections will be submitted to the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee at the public hearing on March 14, 2007. Staff from all jurisdictions will continue to review and revise the data, with final approval by the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee anticipated in June 2007.
We recommend that the Council adopt the attached resolution providing comments to the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee on the Draft Socio-Economic Projections for use in the 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan.
