AGENDA #8

memorandum

to:	Roger L. Stancil, Town Manager
from:	J.B. Culpepper, Planning Director
	David Bonk, Long Range Planning and Transportation Coordinator
subject:	Draft Chapel Hill 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan Socio-Economic Projections
date:	November 6, 2006

PURPOSE

The purpose of this report is to provide the Council a summary of draft 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan housing and employment projections for Chapel Hill (Attachment 1). Adoption of the attached resolution would schedule a public forum for November 20, 2006 to receive public comment and refer the projections to the Manager, Town Attorney, and advisory boards for comment.

BACKGROUND

The Durham-Chapel-Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization has begun the process to revise the adopted 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan. The 2030 Plan was endorsed by the Town Council on January 26, 2004 and adopted by the Transportation Advisory Committee on April 13, 2005. Federal regulations require that regional transportation plans be updated every four years. Regional transportation plans include socio-economic growth projections, including housing and employment projections, for a minimum 20-year timeframe. All jurisdictions within the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area are required to prepare 2035 projections. The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization is also preparing 2035 projections in conjunction with the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization. The Triangle J Council of Government is coordinating the preparation of the projections for both Urban Areas.

DISCUSSION

The draft 2035 housing and employment projections provide estimates for the 2005 base year. The 2005 base year projections were prepared by using the 2000 census housing data and the 2002 base year estimates from the 2030 Plan. This data was expanded for 2005 by adding certificates of occupancy issued between July 2002 and July 2005 and including them in the housing estimates from 2002. Employment estimates for 2005 were provided by InfoUSA, a commercial data service purchased by the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO). The InfoUSA information was reviewed and edited by Chapel Hill staff. Staff edits included: removing erroneous data, relocating businesses onto the correct land parcels, removing double-counting, and ensuring that the appropriate employment was listed within the Chapel Hill jurisdiction.

Staff used the adopted 2000 Chapel Hill Comprehensive Plan to prepare the draft 2035 projections. The adopted Comprehensive Plan included the following major themes that guided staff in the preparation of the projections:

Maintain the Urban Services/Rural Buffer Boundary

Identify areas where there are creative development opportunities

Encourage desirable forms of non-residential development

Work toward a balanced transportation system

The adopted strategies were supplemented by recent efforts to accommodate redevelopment within the downtown area and to implement transit oriented development along specific corridors to support expanded use of alternative modes of transportation. Staff also considered ongoing development proposals and assessments of potential development and redevelopment areas.

The table below includes a summary of the draft housing and employment projections for 2035. The table also includes the adopted 2002 and 2030 projections.

	Adopted 2030 Plan		Draft 2035 Plan
	2002 Base Year	2030 Projections	2005 Base Year	2035 Projections
Dwelling Units	21,192	29,678	23,836	33,721
Employment	25,796	56,179	36,439	107,002
Population	55,038	77,858	52,397	81,703

The 2005 base year data differs from the 2002 base year data for several reasons. We believe that we have more accurate data now than was available in 2002. The lower population in 2005 can be attributed to a correction issued by the U.S. Census in 2003 that lowered previous population estimates – the 2002 population was a projection based on the original 2000 Census data. The 2005 population estimate is provided by the N.C. State Demographics agency, for the population of the Town of Chapel Hill as of July 1, 2005. The employment numbers for 2005 are considerably higher than the estimates for 2002, which we attribute to a more precise data source (the commercial data service commissioned by the MPO). While all employment data sources are less accurate than housing data sources, we are more confident in these estimates than we have been with previous employment estimates.

The draft 2035 projections include the designation of transit corridors along US 15-501 and Franklin Street. A second corridor is assumed along NC 86/Martin Luther King Blvd, Columbia Street and US 15-501 South. The corridors are shown on the attached map (Attachment 2). The draft projections are also based on primary redevelopment districts, stations areas along the future fixed guideway transit service, some redevelopment of downtown, additional development on UNC Main Campus, and some form of development on the UNC Carolina North campus. These areas are denoted with stars on the map.

NEXT STEPS

The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization has requested that local jurisdictions submit draft projections for preliminary review by the regional staff and the Transportation Advisory Committee on November 8, 2006.

After receiving comments at the proposed public forum on November 20, 2006, staff will prepare final projections for the Council’s consideration and approval on December 4, 2006. The Transportation Advisory Committee is expected to receive the final draft regional projections on December 13, 2006 and release the projections for public comment. The Committee is scheduled to hold a public hearing on January 10, 2007, and approve the final projections on February 14, 2007.

The socio-economic projections will be used with the regional transportation model to assess transportation impacts. The 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan is scheduled for final approval in early 2008.

RECOMMENDATION