ATTACHMENT 1

PROCESS FOR CREATING 2035 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

Prepared by the Chapel Hill Planning Department

November 15, 2006

The baseline 2005 housing and employment values and projections for 2035 are provided in Table 1.  The projections for 2035 are broken out into various zones or types of development throughout the Town of Chapel Hill. The methods and assumptions used in projecting future dwelling units and employment are described below.  Multiplication factors are applied to the dwelling units to obtain households and population estimates.  It should be noted that the estimates shown here vary slightly from those provided to the Council on November 6, 2006.  The slightly lower values are not attributed to any change in methodology, but rather a correction of some previous double counting.

Table 1: 2035 Socio-Economic Projections

Year		Population	Households	Dwelling Units	Employment
2005		52,397	22,236	23,836	36,439
2035	Primary Redevelopment Districts	19,902	9,047	9,697	39,364
	Downtown	1,924	875	938	4,013
	UNC Carolina North	2,217	1,008	1,080	10,600
	UNC Main Campus	12,496	-		22,269
	Transit Corridors	12,990	5,905	6,329	4,098
	Station Areas	2,542	1,155	1,239	2,413
	Limited Redevelopment	27,819	12,645	13,555	6,211
	Total	79,890	30,634	32,838	88,919

Baseline 2005 Estimates

• North Carolina State Demographer population estimate for Chapel Hill as of July 1, 2005.
• Dwelling unit estimates based on 2000 census housing data and the 2002 base year estimates from the 2030 Plan. The data was expanded for 2005 by adding certificates of occupancy issued between July 2002 and July 2005 and including them in the housing estimates from 2002.
• Employment estimates for 2005 were provided by Info USA, a commercial data service. The InfoUSA information was reviewed and corrected by Chapel Hill staff.

Projections for 2035

The values shown for 2035 represent both existing development and anticipated future development/redevelopment.  The areas upon which the calculations are based are shown in Map 2 (Attachment 3).

Primary Redevelopment Districts

These areas were identified for future mixed use, higher intensity development, based in part on their proximity to anticipated higher capacity transit corridors.  It is assumed that there will be very little development in areas of Chapel Hill that are currently undeveloped, both because it is already mostly built out, and also because of policies that prioritize development in areas with existing infrastructure, etc.  Other assumptions included:

• The majority of new significant redevelopment will be mixed use, higher intensity, and located near transit.
• District locations are based on areas where there are already development projects either in construction or active proposals that are currently working their way through the system.
• To determine the dwelling units and employees in each district, staff engaged in the following process:
  • Estimated the size of the district.
  • Estimated the percentage of the district expected to redevelop by 2035.
  • Estimated the mix of uses (percentage of residential, commercial, or office); applied to calculate acreage of each use.
  • Estimated residential density or floor area ratio to apply to each type of use; calculated to obtain residential units or commercial/office square footage.  Applied employee per square footage multipliers to find employees. 

Downtown

Downtown projections were based on the adopted 2000 Small Area Plan, as well as information regarding current development proposals and recent projects.  The 2000 Small Area Plan identifies two districts downtown – a “Tier 1” district along Franklin Street, and a “Tier 2” district along Rosemary Street.  It also identifies several “preservation areas.”  Using the maps from the Small Area Plan, each parcel in the downtown area was classified as either “preservation,” “Tier 1,” or “Tier 2.”  No redevelopment was assigned to the preservation areas.  For the Tier 1 and 2 areas, the projections followed much the same process described above. 

• Estimated the size of the district
• Estimated the percentage of the district expected to redevelop by 2035
• Estimated the mix of uses (percentage of residential, commercial, or office); apply to calculate acreage of each use.
• Estimated residential density or floor area ratio to apply to each type of use; calculate to obtain residential units or commercial/office square footage.  Applied employee per square footage multipliers to find employees. 

UNC Carolina North

The projections used for the UNC Carolina North property were the same as used in the 2030 Plan.  As in the 2030 Plan, the number of jobs and dwelling units was based on the most recent version of the Ayers Saint Gross Plan, and assumes a 50% buildout of the entire project by 2035.  These values are subject to revision as more accurate numbers become available. 

UNC Main Campus

Projections for employees and university beds on UNC Main Campus were based on the 10-year development plan and Development Modification #3.  A rate of employees per square foot of various building types (based on existing conditions) was applied to the proposed additional square footage to calculate employees.  Housing information was obtained through the Housing Office.  These estimates go through 2015, after which time we do not have detailed enough information to make reliable estimates.

Station Areas and Transit Corridor

As a part of this process, it was assumed that over time, areas in close proximity to high capacity public transportation will redevelop at a higher intensity.  A 10% increase in dwelling units and employment was applied to the land areas within a ¼-mile radius of the high capacity cross-town service and the fixed guideway stations that are not already represented in one of the Major Redevelopment Areas.  We believe this will account for smaller scale infill, redevelopment, minor subdivisions, etc.

Limited Redevelopment

Limited Redevelopment areas represent the rest of the town, which include other smaller proposed projects and some residential redevelopment.