ATTACHMENT 1

 

PROCESS FOR CREATING 2035 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

Prepared by the Chapel Hill Planning Department

November 15, 2006

 

The baseline 2005 housing and employment values and projections for 2035 are provided in Table 1.  The projections for 2035 are broken out into various zones or types of development throughout the Town of Chapel Hill. The methods and assumptions used in projecting future dwelling units and employment are described below.  Multiplication factors are applied to the dwelling units to obtain households and population estimates.  It should be noted that the estimates shown here vary slightly from those provided to the Council on November 6, 2006.  The slightly lower values are not attributed to any change in methodology, but rather a correction of some previous double counting.

 

Table 1: 2035 Socio-Economic Projections

Year

 

Population

Households

Dwelling Units

Employment

2005

 

52,397

22,236

23,836

36,439

 

 

 

 

 

 

2035

Primary Redevelopment Districts

19,902

9,047

9,697

39,364

Downtown

1,924

875

938

4,013

UNC Carolina North

2,217

1,008

1,080

10,600

UNC Main Campus

12,496

-

 

22,269

Transit Corridors

12,990

5,905

6,329

4,098

Station Areas

2,542

1,155

1,239

2,413

Limited Redevelopment

27,819

12,645

13,555

6,211

 

Total

79,890

30,634

32,838

88,919

 

 

Baseline 2005 Estimates

 

Projections for 2035

The values shown for 2035 represent both existing development and anticipated future development/redevelopment.  The areas upon which the calculations are based are shown in Map 2 (Attachment 3).

 


Primary Redevelopment Districts

These areas were identified for future mixed use, higher intensity development, based in part on their proximity to anticipated higher capacity transit corridors.  It is assumed that there will be very little development in areas of Chapel Hill that are currently undeveloped, both because it is already mostly built out, and also because of policies that prioritize development in areas with existing infrastructure, etc.  Other assumptions included:

 

Downtown

Downtown projections were based on the adopted 2000 Small Area Plan, as well as information regarding current development proposals and recent projects.  The 2000 Small Area Plan identifies two districts downtown – a “Tier 1” district along Franklin Street, and a “Tier 2” district along Rosemary Street.  It also identifies several “preservation areas.”  Using the maps from the Small Area Plan, each parcel in the downtown area was classified as either “preservation,” “Tier 1,” or “Tier 2.”  No redevelopment was assigned to the preservation areas.  For the Tier 1 and 2 areas, the projections followed much the same process described above. 

 

UNC Carolina North

The projections used for the UNC Carolina North property were the same as used in the 2030 Plan.  As in the 2030 Plan, the number of jobs and dwelling units was based on the most recent version of the Ayers Saint Gross Plan, and assumes a 50% buildout of the entire project by 2035.  These values are subject to revision as more accurate numbers become available. 

 

UNC Main Campus

Projections for employees and university beds on UNC Main Campus were based on the 10-year development plan and Development Modification #3.  A rate of employees per square foot of various building types (based on existing conditions) was applied to the proposed additional square footage to calculate employees.  Housing information was obtained through the Housing Office.  These estimates go through 2015, after which time we do not have detailed enough information to make reliable estimates.

 

Station Areas and Transit Corridor

As a part of this process, it was assumed that over time, areas in close proximity to high capacity public transportation will redevelop at a higher intensity.  A 10% increase in dwelling units and employment was applied to the land areas within a ¼-mile radius of the high capacity cross-town service and the fixed guideway stations that are not already represented in one of the Major Redevelopment Areas.  We believe this will account for smaller scale infill, redevelopment, minor subdivisions, etc.

 

Limited Redevelopment

Limited Redevelopment areas represent the rest of the town, which include other smaller proposed projects and some residential redevelopment.