AGENDA #8

 

MEMORANDUM

 

TO:                  Mayor and Town Council

 

FROM:            W. Calvin Horton, Town Manager

 

SUBJECT:       Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Draft 2030 Regional Socioeconomic Projections

 

DATE:             January 26, 2004

 

This memorandum provides additional information concerning the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2030 Regional Transportation Plan socioeconomic projections. The attached resolution would forward recommendations to the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee on the 2030 projections.

 

It is anticipated that the Transportation Advisory Committee will approve the 2030 regional socioeconomic data on February 11, 2004.

 

BACKGROUND

 

On November 12, 2003, the Transportation Advisory Committee reviewed and released for public comment the 2030 draft socioeconomic projections. These projections will be used in the development of the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2030 Regional Transportation Plan. On January 12, 2004, the Council held a public forum on the draft 2030 Regional socioeconomic projections.

 

KEY ISSUES

 

At the Public Forum staff presented updated information on the socioeconomic projections for Durham, Orange and Chatham Counties. The tables below summarize the county totals for housing, population and employment.

 

Table 1 Dwelling Units

 

 

2002

2030

 % increase

Chatham

12,343

29,462

138.69%

Durham

103,865

160,906

54.92%

Granville

7,411

16,414

121.48%

Orange

52,647

75,265

42.96%

 

 

 

Table 2 Population

 

 

2002

2030

 % increase

Chatham

27,024

62,879

132.68%

Durham

241,817

366,245

51.46%

Granville

22,691

44,458

95.93%

Orange

125,687

176,948

40.78%

 

Table 3 Employment

 

 

2002

2030

 % increase

Chatham

9,214

12,542

36.12%

Durham

197,177

336,400

70.61%

Granville

11,025

13,181

19.56%

Orange

58,398

108,479

85.76%

 

Council discussion during the Forum centered on the following issues: 

 

1.      Chatham County Growth

 

A Council member asked about the adequacy of the projections for growth in Chatham County and the implications of underestimating future growth.

 

Comment: The estimates included in the 2030 projection include the northeast portion of Chatham County (Attachment 1).  The projections provided by Chatham County staff include a 138% increase in dwelling units, from 12,343 in 2002 to 29,462 in 2030 or an additional 17,119 dwelling units.  Chatham County Planning staff confirmed that approximately 6,000 new residential units have been approved or proposed for approval in the Chatham County portion of the Metropolitan Planning Area.  At the January 14, 2004 Transportation Advisory Committee meeting, the Committee directed Metropolitan Planning Organization staff to contact Chatham County and ask that they confirm that their projections include both the approved but unbuilt development projects and anticipated future growth.

 

The efficient allocation of limited transportation funding for all types of transportation projects, roadways, public transit, bicycle and pedestrian facilities is dependent on accurate projections of future travel demand.  Underestimates of future growth can result in the inability to respond in a timely manner to travel demand and resulting congestion.  The projections used by the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area for the development of the regional transportation plan are also used by other public agencies, such as the school systems, to plan investments in new facilities.  Under-assessments of population or employment growth can affect the ability of local jurisdictions to respond in a timely manner.

 

 

 

2.      Carrboro Growth

 

A Council member questioned the growth between 2002 and 2030 in Sector 19, which includes the Town of Carrboro (Attachment 2).

 

Comment: The 2002 and 2030 data released by the Transportation Advisory Committee for public comment has been updated by local and regional planning staff.  The table below summarizes the Sectors within Orange County, including Sector 19.

 

Table 4 Orange County Data By Sector

 

Sector

Dwelling Units

 

Population

 

Employment

 

 

2002

2030

2002

2030

2002

2030

13

20966

29310

54438

76276

41336

72909

14

4529

9586

10621

21047

7267

14711

15

13996

19854

32343

44420

4566

13269

19

9472

11880

19531

24494

4393

6754

21

3684

4635

8754

10711

836

836

Total

52647

75265

125687

176948

58398

108479

 

The population growth for Sector 19, from 19,531 in 2002 to 24,494 in 2030 is unchanged from the numbers presented in November 2003.  We have checked with Carrboro staff and understand they are comfortable with the current projections at this time.

 

3.   Chapel Hill Projections

 

During our review, staff identified several corrections to the 2002 and 2030 data for Chapel Hill.

 

Comment: Our review of the data has produced a corrected version of the socioeconomic projections for Chapel Hill (Attachment 3).  The corrected projections for Chapel Hill are included in the County and Sector data summarized above.  The 2030 projections were prepared using the previously approved 2025 socioeconomic projections as a base.  The 2025 projections were revised based on several factors.  These included the addition of five years of growth for zones that had not been built out in 2025 and, changes in land use designations or zoning classifications or proposals for development that were not available when the 2025 projections were adopted.

 

The tables in Attachment 3 break the Chapel Hill data into several subcategories, including Sector 13, which includes the southeast portion of Orange County, existing Town limits, and the Town Urban Services Area.  The table also summarizes information for the transportation analysis zones that make up the University main campus, the Downtown area and the Horace Williams area.  Attachment 3 also includes a map showing the boundaries of the various subareas.

 

Table 5 below compares the projections for 2030 with the projections previously prepared for the 2025 Regional Plan. The 2025 projections were used in the development of the Town’s 2000 Comprehensive Plan. The data in Table 5 includes the corrected information. Because of some differences in the boundaries of the transportation analysis zones, Town limits and adopted urban services boundaries, the projections are approximate.

 

Table 5 Chapel Hill Projections

 

 

2025 D.U..

2030 D.U.

2025 Pop.

2030 Pop.

2025 Emp.

2030 Emp.

Town of Chapel Hill (approx.)

22,146

27,647

54,557

73,236

47,963

73,741

Urban Services Area (approx.)

24,151

31,123

59,331

80,364

48,860

75,427

 

The Chapel Hill housing, population and employment projections for 2030 are higher than the previously adopted 2025 projections for several reasons.

 

 

University of North Carolina

 

Main Campus:

 

The 2030 projections for the University main campus were based on the University’s  Development Plan as reviewed by the Council and supplemented with information from the Master Plan. Using the proposed increases in square footage we developed employment projections using an average number of employees per 1,000 square feet. We project that the area that includes the University main campus employment will increase from 15,150 in 2002 to 23,963 in 2030, an increase of 8,813 employees.

 

Carolina North:

 

For the University’s Carolina North property we used the information released in December  2003 by the University (Attachment 4).  Based on the overall development proposal and timetable for development we estimate that approximately 10,600 jobs and 1,080 dwelling units could be located in the Chapel Hill portion of the Carolina North project by 2030.  We recognize that the University has not adopted a master plan and the Council has not reviewed any proposal for the proposed Carolina North development.  The projections used are the best estimate we can make with so much as yet undetermined.  The Council could revise the proposed projections for the Carolina North development as it determines appropriate either now or in the future.

 

We believe that using the projections for Carolina North, based on the University’s proposed land use plan, would assist the Council in assessing the regional transportation impacts of the project.  The 2030 Plan evaluation would also provide an opportunity to evaluate the adequacy of the adopted 2025 Transportation Plan to provide adequate mobility to the Carolina North site.

 

NEXT STEPS

 

The Chapel Hill Town Council recommendations and comments will be submitted to the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee.  The Transportation Advisory Committee is expected to approve the 2030 projections on February 11, 2004.

 

RECOMMENDATIONS

 

Planning Board:  The Planning Board recommends that the Council work with the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area to develop and utilize transportation modeling tools that allow for a detailed evaluation of the impacts of regional growth, including proposals such as Carolina North (Attachment 5).  These tools should provide for the analysis of air quality impacts.

 

Comment:  We believe that the development of the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan should use the best transportation modeling available to evaluate the impact of future growth and assess alternative solutions to congestion and air quality problems.  The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization has entered into a regional agreement with the North Carolina Department of Transportation, Triangle Transit Authority and Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization to jointly develop and upgrade the Triangle Regional Model.  This group recently decided to delay the development of enhancements to the Triangle Regional Model and use the existing model to develop and analyze the 2030 Regional Transportation Plans.  While we understand that the schedule mandated by the federal air quality for approval of an updated Plan limit the regions ability to make significant changes to the regional model, we are concerned that the existing model cannot provide detailed evaluation of alternative modes of transportation, transit, bicycling and walking.  We are also concerned that the existing model cannot provide subarea analysis of air quality impacts below the county level.  We will work with the Metropolitan Planning Organization to improve the quality of the model to evaluate the impacts of transit, pedestrian and bicycle modes of transportation and the models ability to provide more detailed evaluation of transportation alternatives and air quality impacts.

 

Transportation Board:  The Transportation Board recommends that the Council work with the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area and the University of North Carolina to develop and use transportation modeling tools that allow for a detailed evaluation of the impacts of regional growth, including proposals such as Carolina North (Attachment 6).  These tools should provide for the analysis of air quality impacts.

 

The Board also recommended that the 2030 projections be provided to the Orange County and Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Districts for their use.

 

Comment:  The Council has not yet decided on a process to evaluate the transportation impacts of the proposed Carolina North project. We will provide the school districts with copies of the 2030 projections.

 

Manager’s Recommendation:  With the limitations reviewed in this memorandum, we believe that the 2002 base data and 2030 projections represent a reasonable estimate of future growth of the Town. We recommend that the Council approve the use of the corrected 2002 base data and 2030 socioeconomic projections for Chapel Hill (Attachment 3).  We also suggest that the Town use the 2030 projections to update the projections included in the Town’s Comprehensive Plan.

 

ATTACHMENTS

 

1.       Map of Chatham County included in Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area (p. 8).

2.       Map of Orange County Sectors (p. 9).

3.       Corrected 2003 and 2030 Socioeconomic Data (p. 10).

4.       Summary of Carolina North Development, News and Observer, December 3, 2003 (p. 18).

5.       Planning Board Summary of Action (p. 19).

6.       Transportation Board Summary of Action (p. 20).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A RESOLUTION APPROVING THE 2030 CHAPEL HILL SOCIOECONOMIC DATA FOR USE IN THE PREPARATION OF THE 2030 DURHAM-CHAPEL HILL-CARRBORO REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN (2004-01-26/R-9)

 

WHEREAS, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area has begun preparation of a 2030 Regional Transportation Plan; and

 

WHEREAS, the draft Transportation Advisory Committee has prepared draft 2030 Socioeconomic projections; and

 

WHEREAS, the Transportation Advisory Committee has opened a public comment period on these draft Projections; and

 

WHEREAS, the Council has reviewed the 2030 projections;

 

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Council of the Town of Chapel Hill that the Council approves the corrected 2030 Chapel Hill socioeconomic projections for use in the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2030 Regional Transportation Plan and transmits them to the Transportation Advisory Committee for use in the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan.

 

This the 26th day of January, 2004.