Comprehensive Housing Strategy
Prepared for the Orange County HOME Consortium including the Towns of Carrboro, Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough, North Carolina
Training & Development Associates, Inc. will provide an overall housing market analysis for the Orange County consortium area as well as for the constituent towns of Carrboro, Chapel Hill, and Hillsborough. In doing so, we will provide an analysis of historical data (from the past 10 years), current numbers, and projections of housing needs for a five-year period.TDA will include in the Comprehensive Housing Strategy for Orange County all the required elements described in the RFP, including an executive summary, analysis of housing activity and production, future demand, gaps analysis, discussion of strategies, as well as a comprehensive inventory of affordable housing currently available in the County.
Required Elements:
1. Executive Summary
In the executive summary, TDA will provide a general description of the housing market in the consortium area and in individual constituent areas as well as the balance of the county. We will document general trends, and we will also highlight specific areas that are not adequately explained by these trends, noting how the housing supply or demand for these areas differs from the surrounding region.
2. Analysis of Housing Production Activity
TDA will analyze and evaluate current and historical housing production activity with consideration of the geographic and economic descriptions of construction type, tenure, and price (or rent). In doing so, we will utilize information provided by the constituent planning departments (in each town and the county). We will also consult building permit records in each town and the county to determine the total number of housing starts over the historical period of our study. We will also consult with the constituent departments of housing to obtain the number of new assisted housing units.
3. Analysis of Housing Sales and Lease Activity
TDA will analyze and evaluate new construction sales and existing home resale activity across Orange County. To do so, we will access detailed data from the Multiple Listing Service to obtain historical and current sales information. As described in Item 7 below, we will also contact developers of subdivisions that have been platted for information on ongoing construction, sales, and future plans. For lease information, we will contact by telephone area apartment complexes and property managers to update census information to determine the number of rental units available in the area, rents, and vacancy rates.
4. Comprehensive Inventory of Affordable Housing Stock
As an add-on to our original proposal, TDA will develop a comprehensive count of all affordable housing units in the County. To do so, we will supplement counts of subsidized housing in the area with information from MLS listings and building permits to determine the number of housing units that are affordable to residents earning 80 percent of the area median income or below.
5. Future Demand
To forecast future demand for housing, TDA will obtain information from several sources. We will access information provided by constituent planning departments and building permit applications. We will also analyze economic trends by considering the location of major employers, utilities, banks, schools, and shopping in the area in an effort to pinpoint areas of relative growth. TDA will attempt to identify future demand by housing type, tenure, price/rent levels and geographic location.
6. Gaps Analysis – Production vs. Needs
In our Gaps analysis, TDA will compare our forecasts of future demand with estimates of future supply. For historical information, we will compare housing starts (estimated above from building permits) to annual household growth numbers to determine the size of the surplus or deficit in housing that currently exists. To develop supply forecasts, we will obtain quantitative and qualitative information from developers of subdivisions, condominiums and townhouses, and rental units, as well as information from the constituent planning departments. We will highlight gaps in production by housing type, tenure, price/rent levels, and geographic location.
7. Provider Analysis
TDA will conduct a universal survey of current and projected housing providers by telephone and/or onsite visits as an input for our analysis of current housing activity and future housing supply. We will draw upon information provided by the constituent housing departments and in building permit applications to generate a list of providers to contact. We will contact all providers, including for-profit and nonprofit builders to obtain quantitative and qualitative information about existing housing supply and plans for future activity. As part of our Gaps Analysis, we will highlight the types of development that seem to be under- (or over-) represented by these housing providers.
8. Strategies for Future Action
Drawing from our Gaps Analysis, TDA will provide a discussion of areas of housing production that need future consideration by the Consortium jurisdictions and their partners. We will also develop specific strategies for addressing the unmet needs of the communities with attention to problems of affordable housing across the County.
9. Community Input
Once a draft of the document has been completed, TDA will lead two community meetings in which the community will be invited to provide comment on the document’s findings and recommendations. One TDA representative will attend each meeting. The County will be responsible for marketing the meetings and providing the meeting space.