MEMORANDUM

TO:                  Mayor and Town Council

FROM:            W. Calvin Horton, Town Manager

SUBJECT:       2025 Current Trend Regional Transportation Plan: Air Quality Conformity Report

DATE:             January 10, 2000

Adoption of the attached resolution would provide the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee with comments on the 2025 Current Trend Plan Air Quality Conformity Report.

The Transportation Advisory Committee must approve the Air Quality Conformity Report as part of the approval of the 2025 Current Trend Transportation Plan. The Transportation Advisory Committee has opened a public comment period on the Conformity Report.

BACKGROUND

On September 8, 1999, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee released for public comment the 2025 Current Trends Plan (Attachment 1). This Plan has been developed in order to avoid further delays in federally funded transportation capital projects and avoid the possible loss of fiscal year 2000 transit operating funds. Work continues on a more comprehensive 2025 Transportation Plan that will be considered later this year.

On September 22, 1999, the Town Council held a public forum to review the Draft 2025 Current Trends Plan and affirmed its support for the adoption of the Plan to avoid the loss of federal operating assistance (Attachment 2). At the same time the Council recommended that the Transportation Advisory Committee develop a schedule for completion of a draft 2025 Comprehensive Transportation Plan by June, 2000.

On October 13, 1999, the Transportation Advisory Committee endorsed the 2025 Current Trend Plan and requested that federal and State agencies prepare an air quality analysis of the Plan. The air quality analysis is a required step before the 2025 Current Trends Plan can be approved.

On December 22, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization released the Air Quality Conformity Report (Attachment 3) for the 2025 Current Trend Plan. We have provided the Council with the Executive Summary and Conformity Report for review. (Note: A copy of the complete Appendix is available in the Council Reading Room, Town Clerk’s Office and the Planning Department).

The release of the Air Quality Conformity Analysis by the Transportation Advisory Committee also initiated a 21 day public comment period, anticipated to end on January 12, 2000.

DISCUSSION

The purpose of the Air Quality Report is to assess whether the 2025 Current Trends Plan will meet federally mandated air quality standards. The Air Quality Conformity Report includes only an analysis of the anticipated air quality impacts of the 2025 Current Trend Plan on Durham County and a portion of Granville County. Durham County and Granville County are included due to their designation in 1990 as non-attainment for ozone and carbon monoxide. These areas were re-designated as maintenance areas for ozone in 1994 and for carbon monoxide 1995.

Orange County and Chatham County were not included in the 1990 non-attainment designation and not included in the analysis. It is anticipated that new federal air quality regulations will result in the designation of Orange County as part of a non-attainment area that will include Durham County and Wake County.

The air quality analysis includes the comparison of projected ozone processors, volatile organic compounds (VOC), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and carbon monoxide to air pollutant budgets. These “budgets” have been developed by the North Carolina Division of Air Quality and approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In order to be in compliance with the air quality standards the projections of future pollutant levels must be lower than the emissions budgets established for the area.

 The projections of pollutants is derived from an analysis of vehicle miles traveled in different speed groups for future target years, including 2005, 2015 and 2025. The projections of vehicle miles traveled were developed using the Triangle Regional Transportation Model. The Model includes projection of future housing and employment growth for the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area and the Capital Area Urban Area, which includes Wake County. The projections of vehicle miles traveled were then used to develop projected emissions for the principle pollutant groups, expressed in kilograms per day.

 Table 1 below summarizes the results of  Air Quality Conformity projections for Durham and Granville Counties. All budgets and projected emissions are expressed in kilograms per day.

Table 1            Kilograms per day

Based on this analysis, if the 2025 Current Trend Plan were implemented both Durham County and Granville County would achieve compliance with the established air quality emissions budgets in for all periods through 2025.

Implications for Chapel Hill

Although Chapel Hill is not directly affected by the Current Trend Plan Air Quality Conformity Analysis, it is anticipated that Orange County will be designated as a non- attainment area in July, 2000. At that time a similar air quality analysis will be undertaken as part of the evaluation of the 2025 Comprehensive Transportation Plan. That analysis will include Orange County and Chapel Hill.

Our review of the Current Trend Plan Conformity Analysis identified several issues related to the analysis and assumptions used in the analysis. We provide a summary of our comments below. Appendix 1 includes a more detailed discussion of these comments. We recommend that:

• Sections of the Summary be revised to more clearly explain the conclusions and findings of the Report; and to include table headings throughout the Report that more accurately describe the information presented.
• The Report include an explanation of why projected pollutant levels do not appear to be as severe as the increase in vehicle miles traveled and degree of congestion projections identified in the 2025 Current Trends Plan.
• Additional information, including system maps, be included in Appendix D regarding future transit networks assumed in the analysis; and that projected transit ridership be included to allow comparison with existing transit ridership.
• Section 3.8, Mode Choice and Transit Assignment be expanded to include more detail on the bicycle and walk assignments assumed in the model. This information would include a comparison of existing bike walk levels and projected levels; and would allow for a better evaluation of whether the assumptions are reasonable when compared to anticipated development patterns.
• More information should be included for use of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Normalization process described in Section 4.3 of the Report and in Appendix F to explain the significant reductions in projected vehicle miles traveled.
• Clarification be provided as to whether reductions in vehicle miles traveled for vanpools was applied in addition to reduction assumed in the 2025 Current Trend Plan for expanded transportation demand management programs.
• Additional information be provided to explain reductions in vehicle miles traveled related to intelligent transportation systems development.

We continue to believe that approval of the 2025 Current Trends Plan should proceed as quickly as possible to avoid the loss of federal transportation funds.

 While some of these issues need not be addressed prior to approval of the 2025 Current Trends Plan, we believe they should all be adequately addressed as part of the air quality conformity analysis for the 2025 Comprehensive Transportation Plan. With the anticipated designation of Orange County as part of the Raleigh-Durham non-attainment area, the air quality analysis for the 2025 Comprehensive Transportation Plan will have a direct impact on Chapel Hill and should be as accurate as possible.

NEXT STEPS

The Transportation Advisory Committee is anticipated to consider approving the 2025 Current Trend Plan Air Quality Conformity Report on January 12, 2000. If the Report is approved at that time it is anticipated that the 2025 Current Trends Plan will receive all necessary State and federal approvals in February, 2000. It is anticipated that the draft  2025 Comprehensive Transportation Plan will be completed in June, 2000.

RECOMMENDATION

Manager’s Recommendation: That the Council approve the attached resolution providing comments and recommendations to the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee on the 2025 Current Trend Plan Conformity Analysis.

Attachments:

1.         2025 Current Trends Plan

2.         September 22, 1999 Council Memorandum

3.         2025 Current Trends Plan Air Quality Conformity Report Summary and Report.

The Appendix, which has not been attached, includes the following sections:

·        Appendix A-Federal Register SIP Notice and Emissions Budget-This section includes the federal guidelines for air quality conformity and the Raleigh-Durham Non-Attainment area budgets.

·        Appendix B-Discussion of Emissions Factor Development-The North Carolina Division of Air Quality summary of the use of MOBILE 5A model to prepare emissions estimates.

·        Appendix C-Output files from the MOBILE 5A analysis-This information is very lengthy and has not been generally distributed for public review. The detailed information is available from the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization.

·        Appendix D-Description of Future Transportation Systems-This section includes maps showing the assumed roadway, and public transit networks included in the analysis.

·        Appendix F-VMT and Emissions Calculations-Summary of vehicle miles traveled and related pollutant emissions by roadway classification. Also includes a discussion of calculations for intelligent transportation system and vanpooling reductions.

·        Appendix G-Agency Comments on the Draft Report-Letter from the North Carolina Division of Air Quality supporting the information and process used to develop the Conformity Report.

·        Appendix H-Public Participation Policy-The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Public Involvement Policy.

·        Appendix I-Comments on the Conformity Determination by Citizens-To be completed.

·        Appendix J-Adoption of the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Long Range Transportation Plan-To be completed.

·        Appendix K-Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Resolution Finding the Transportation Plan in Conformity with the SIP-To be completed.

·        Appendix L- Letter from EPA-This letter reviews the use of several methodologies used to prepare the analysis.

·        Appendix M-Granville County Air Quality Analysis- Projected pollutant emissions and adopted budgets for Granville County.

(Note: A copy of the complete Appendix is available in the Chapel Hill Town Clerk’s Office and the Planning Department).

A RESOLUTION PROVIDING COMMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE DURHAM-CHAPEL HILL-CARRBORO TRANSPORTATION ADVISORY COMMIT-TEE ON THE 2025 CURRENT TRENDS PLAN AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY REPORT (2000-01-10/R-27)

WHEREAS,, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee has developed the 2025 Current Trends Plan; and

WHEREAS, an Air Quality Conformity Analysis Report has been prepared for the 2025 Current Trends Plan; and

WHEREAS, the Transportation Advisory Committee has opened a public comment period on the 2025 Current Trend Plan Air Quality Conformity Report; and

WHEREAS, the Town Council has reviewed the 2025 Current Trend Plan Air Quality Conformity Report;

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Council of the Town of Chapel Hill that the following comments and recommendations be provided to the Transportation Advisory Committee on the 2025 Current Trends Transportation Plan Air Quality Conformity Report.

• Sections of the Summary be revised to more clearly explain the conclusions and findings of the Report; and to include table headings throughout the Report that more accurately describe the information presented.
• The Report include an explanation of why projected pollutant levels do not appear to be as severe as the increase in vehicle miles traveled and degree of congestion projections identified in the 2025 Current Trends Plan.
• Additional information, including system maps, be included in Appendix D regarding future transit networks assumed in the analysis; and that projected transit ridership be included to allow comparison with existing transit ridership.
• Section 3.8, Mode Choice and Transit Assignment be expanded to include more detail on the bicycle and walk assignments assumed in the model. This information would include a comparison of existing bike walk levels and projected levels; and would allow for a better evaluation of whether the assumptions are reasonable when compared to anticipated development patterns.
• More information should be included for use of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Normalization process described in Section 4.3 of the Report and in Appendix F to explain the significant reductions in projected vehicle miles traveled.
• Clarification be provided as to whether reductions in vehicle miles traveled for vanpools was applied in addition to reduction assumed in the 2025 Current Trend Plan for expanded transportation demand management programs.
• Additional information be provided to explain reductions in vehicle miles traveled related to intelligent transportation systems development.

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED,  that the Town Council continues to support the adoption of the 2025 Current Trend Plan to avoid the loss of federal transit operating and capital funds.

This the 10^th day of January, 2000.

Appendix 1

Staff Analysis: 2025 Current Trends Plan Air Quality Conformity Report

Conformity Report Information

• We believe that the public will find it difficult to interpret the information included in the Air Quality Conformity Report. The Report relies on technical language and assumes that the reader is familiar with many of the concepts included in the analysis. For example, in providing the summary information in Tables 2 and 3 in the Executive Summary and related tables in the main report, the tables do not indicate that the column labeled “SIP” reflects the emissions budget established by the North Carolina Division of Air Quality or that the columns labeled “Conformity” reflects the projected emissions in the 2025 Plan. We suggest that sections of the Summary be revised to more clearly explain the analysis process and the results and that the tables include headings that more accurately describe the information presented.

·        We suggest that Appendix D, Description of Future Transportation Systems, provide more explicit information on the assumed future transit networks, including Chapel Hill Transit, DATA and TTA service. This information would allow for a better comparison of the future networks to the existing transit systems. This section should also clearly identify which elements of the TTA fixed guideway project are included in the analysis. We also note that the highway network maps included in this section are difficult to read and should be redone. We also suggest that transit network maps be included in Appendix D and projected transit ridership be summarized in either the Conformity Analysis or the 2025 Current Trends Plan Report.

• Section 3.8, Mode Choice and Transit Assignment, of the Conformity Report includes a discussion of how bicycle and pedestrian travel were simulated in the model. More information on the number or percentage of bike/walk trips should be included in this Section. This information should include an comparison of existing bike/walk levels and projected levels. This information would allow for a better evaluation of whether the assumptions are reasonable when compared to anticipated development patterns.

Conformity Report Analysis and Conclusions

• We note the 2025 Current Trend Plan Report includes an analysis of projected traffic volumes and vehicle miles traveled. The Current Trend Plan projects that vehicle miles traveled in the Durham-Chapel Hil-Carrboro region will increase  by 4,033,791 miles or 49% between 1995 and 2025. In addition, the average speed for all travel is projected to fall by 14.5%, while peak hour travel speeds will fall by 7.9%. The percentage of the overall highway network experiencing congestion will increase from 13.3% in 1995 to 30.9% in 2025, representing a 17.6% increase. Freeway congestion is projected to increase from 25.8% to 47.6%, a 21.8% increase. Based on this analysis we conclude that the region is projected to experience a significant increase in vehicles miles traveled and that this increased travel will occur in a highway system that will experience slower speeds and a significant increase in congestion.

With this as the background it is difficult to understand how the projected NOx emissions for Durham County and Granville County are actually lower in 2025 than projected in 1999 (Table 5 in Conformity Report) Similarly, VOC emissions only increase approximately 14% between 1999 and 2025, while carbon monoxide emissions increase approximately 12%.

It is also difficult to reconcile this analysis with the recent experience of during the summer of 1998 and 1999, in which the Triangle Region experienced increased ozone pollutants. We believe these issues should be addressed in the Conformity Report.

• We also have questions about Section 4.3, VMT Normalization, which indicates that model generated non-local vehicle miles traveled for Durham County were reduced by almost 20% and local miles of travel reduced by 57%. These reductions are based on a projection of vehicle miles traveled developed by the Division of Air Quality using historical data. Although federal and State agencies have agreed to use this process, the reductions, particularly for local streets, are significant and should be more fully explained.

• Similarly, Section 4.4, Off-Model Analysis, indicates that reductions in projected pollutants were assigned for the implementation of Intelligent Transportation Systems and continuation of the vanpool program serving Durham County. We believe that the reductions for implementation of Intelligent Transportation Systems should be related to specific financial commitments by the Department of Transportation. The Conformity Analysis includes a reduction of pollutants for the Incident Detection and Response program. We request additional information on the justification for this reduction.

• Reductions in projected pollutants were also assigned for continuation of the vanpool program run by the Triangle Transit Authority, serving Durham County. We point out that the 2025 Current Trends Plan includes assumptions regarding the expansion of transportation demand management programs, which includes vanpool programs. Those assumptions have already been integrated into the computer analysis of future traffic and should be not be double counted using the method described in Appendix F.