TO: Mayor and Town Council
FROM: W. Calvin Horton, Town Manager
SUBJECT: Revisions to 2025 Housing and Employment Projections
DATE: March 26, 2001
This memorandum reviews possible changes to the Town’s adopted 2025 housing and employment projections. The attached resolution would approve a revision to the adopted projections.
In July 1998, the Council approved the 2025 projections of housing and employment prepared in conjunction with the development of a Regional Transportation Plan for the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area (Attachment 2).
Although work began on the 2025 Regional Transportation Plan in late 1998, continuing problems with the Triangle Regional Transportation Model required the suspension of work in late 1999. Since that time regional staff has been reviewing the various alternative scenarios for transportation improvements. It is anticipated that the improvements to the Transportation Model will be completed by April 1, 2001. The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Technical Coordinating Committee, which is overseeing the development of the 2025 Plan, has recognized that there have been changes to land use plans and anticipated development patterns since 1998. The Technical Coordinating Committee has asked all local jurisdictions to review their land use projections and make any revisions they believe necessary by April 1, 2001.
The 2025 projections will be used by the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization to assess the impacts of regional growth on the transportation systems in 2025 and develop a plan to guide the implementation of future transportation improvements. The projections will also be used to determine what transportation improvements will be necessary to achieve conformity with federal air quality regulations. These projections will also be used in related transportation studies including the US 15-501 Major Investment Study and the I-40 Congestion Management Study.
The 1998 Chapel Hill land use projections were prepared using transportation analysis zones developed as part of the 1990 census. Attachment 1 shows transportation analysis zones for Chapel Hill and highlights those areas that have been evaluated for possible revisions to the adopted 2025 projections.
In reviewing the housing and employment projections adopted in 1998, we have identified several areas for possible revision.
The recently proposed campus master plan calls for 5.6 million square feet of additional development on the main campus. The adopted 2025 employment projections for the main campus, shown as area 1 on the attached map, included an increase in employment from 10,017 in 1995 to 14,154 in 2025. Information from the University included in the Town’s 2001 Data Book indicates that 14,571 are currently employed by the University and Hospital. It should be noted that some of these employees are located outside the main campus area, at the Mason Farm/Friday Center area and at offices along Airport Road.
In preparing the 1998 projections, we used a standard ratio of 4 employees per 1000 square feet of development in most areas of Town. Because some of the University development will include a variety of uses, including research and other less intensive uses, we used a ratio of 2 employees per 1000 square feet in the 1998 projections. Using the same ratio, the new development on the main campus would result in approximately 11,200 new employees. By subtracting the 4,137 employees already included in the 2025 projections, the net increase in employment would be 7,063. We note that in order for the University to construct the 5.6 million additional square feet a change in the floor area ratio cap for the main campus must be approved.
The draft University Master Plan for the Horace Williams property projects 25,000 jobs and 3,000 residential units at build-out. The Horace Williams site is identified as area 2 on the attached map. The Town’s 1998 projections anticipated development at a lower level on the Horace Williams property, amounting to 4,578 jobs and 500 houses, assuming a gradual build-out of the Horace Williams site. Information from the University indicates that the development of the Horace Williams site may begin sooner and at a faster pace then we had previously anticipated. We suggest that the employment projections for Horace Williams be increased to represent 50% of the total projected employment, adding approximately 12,000 jobs. The net increase over the adopted 2025 employment projections would be 7,422.
Although we believe that the majority of the 3,000 projected housing units would be constructed by 2025, only a portion of them would be located in the Chapel Hill portion of the site. The draft Plan for Horace Williams suggests that the bulk of the housing would be located west of Seawell School Road in Carrboro’s jurisdiction. We believe that we should continue to project 500 housing units in the Chapel Hill portion of the project.
We note that revisions of projections for the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2025 Transportation Plan does not constitute an approval of the University’s draft Master Plan for the Horace Williams property.
The Gateway Area, identified as 3 on the attached map, extends north and south of US 15-501 from Sage Road/Old Durham-Chapel Hill Road to the Orange County line. The area includes already developed areas such as Blue Cross Blue Shield and Eastowne. It also includes the area for which the Town Council held a design competition in 2000. The adopted 2025 projections for the entire area highlighted on Attachment 1 proposes an increase of 3,255 jobs and 200 housing units.
We believe that the adopted 2025 projections for the area along US 15-501 area are adequate for the 2025 Plan currently under development. We note that no specific development intensity levels have been approved by Council as part of the Gateway design competition.
The revised land use projections will be used to evaluate the transportation impacts of future growth and test various alternative transportation improvements. It is anticipated that the analysis will be able to assess the impact of expanded transit service, the development of fixed guideway transit corridors and parking restrictions. The analysis of the 2025 Plan will also provide the Town with an assessment of the impact of the projected growth. In addition to evaluating transportation improvements, the 2025 Regional Transportation Plan also will evaluate possible changes in land use patterns.
It expected that the development of final alternatives for the 2025 Plan will be completed in May, 2001 and that a draft Plan will be completed by November, 2001. Adoption of the Plan is anticipated in January, 2002 and air quality analysis and federal approval by June, 2002. Federal regulations require revisions to the adopted Regional Transportation Plan every three years.
Manager’s Recommendation: That the Council adopt the attached resolution revising the Town’s adopted 2025 employment projections. We do not believe any changes to the adopted housing projections are necessary. The table below summarizes the proposed changes.
|
Area |
2025 Original Employment |
2025 Revised Employment |
Change from Adopted Projections |
|
|
|
|
|
|
UNC Campus |
14,154 |
21,217 |
+7,063 |
|
Horace Williams |
4,578 |
12,000 |
+7,422 |
1) Map of areas under consideration (p. 5).
2) July 6, 1998, Council memorandum (Begin new p. 1).
RESOLUTION APPROVING CHANGES TO THE CHAPEL HILL 2025 HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS (2001-03-26/R-8)
WHEREAS, the Town of Chapel Hill approved 2025 housing and employment projections for use in the development of the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Regional Transportation Plan on July 8, 1998 and;
WHEREAS, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization has requested local jurisdictions review the accuracy of the 1998 housing and employment projections; and
WHEREAS, the Town of Chapel Hill has identified changes to the adopted 1998 housing and employment projections;
NOW, THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED, that the Town Council revises the adopted 1998 housing and employment projections for the UNC main campus and Horace Williams area.
This the 26th day of March, 2001.