Introduction

I. Introduction

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) defines hazard mitigation as “any sustained action taken to reduce long-term risk to human life and property from natural hazards.” In the short term, hazard mitigation makes communities safer places to live. Hapless, poorly planned development or a lack of disaster recovery resources can exacerbate a community’s susceptibility to natural hazards. In the long term, hazard mitigation is an essential part of creating a sustainable community, a place that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. By having a hazard mitigation plan in place, we can save lives and properties, reduce our vulnerability to future hazards, speed recovery after events, and demonstrate our commitment to improving community health and safety (Keeping Natural Hazards form Becoming Natural Disasters, 1998).

Having a hazard mitigation plan in place is a prerequisite to receiving both state and federal disaster funding for our community. North Carolina requires local governments to have hazard mitigation plans. Senate Bill 300, passed by the North Carolina General Assembly in June 2001, requires that local governments have an approved hazard mitigation plan in place by August 1, 2002 in order to receive state disaster assistance funds. The federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 also established a requirement that local governments must have an approved hazard mitigation plan in place in order to receive federal hazard mitigation funding.

This hazard mitigation plan is intended to meet the requirements of both the state and federal legislation. Creation of this plan was important not only to meet the minimum criteria, but to create effective strategies that will work toward reducing our vulnerability to natural hazards. Implementation of mitigation strategies delineated in this plan is dependent upon securing funding. Strategies are listed as suggestions so that we will be able to prioritize and be aware of our needs when funding opportunities become available. This plan will be revisited and reassessed as further hazard identification data becomes available.

General recommendations to town governments for the creation of hazard mitigation plans are made in two North Carolina Division of Emergency Management publications: “Local Hazard Mitigation Planning Manual” (1988) and “Keeping Natural Hazards from Becoming Natural Disasters” (1998). These documents describe a five-step process for hazard mitigation planning as follows:

1. Identify and analyze each of the hazards possibly affecting the area. This includes assessing the frequency of occurrence, extent of area impacted, and potential of exposure to hazards. Each hazard is then assigned a rated on its frequency, community impact, and exposure.

2. Perform a vulnerability assessment. During this phase the areas vulnerable to each kind of disaster are examined. An inventory of these areas is taken including number of residents, number and cost of residential buildings, number and cost of commercial buildings, number and cost of critical facilities[1], etc. Future development is estimated and the same

assessment is completed. Vulnerable areas and critical structures are then mapped.

3. Assess the community capability to manage and mitigate hazards. This includes examining policies, programs, and ordinances that may affect vulnerability. Policies or programs that affect hazard mitigation are evaluated for their effectiveness.

4. Research goals relevant to mitigation. These can include community goals, state and federal mandates, and previously adopted local policies.

5. Create a mitigation strategy. This should include recommendations for new policies or changes to previously existing policies, how these proposals relate to the goals identified, and who has responsibility for carrying out each of these policies.

The following Hazard Mitigation Plan for the Town of Chapel Hill follows this format. Further guidance for the plan came from the Stafford Act, which requires the plan to include a “method of implementing, monitoring, evaluating and updating the mitigation plan.”

II. Objectives

The objectives of the Town of Chapel Hill’s Hazard Mitigation Plan are as follows:

· Reduce the risk to public health and safety from natural hazards.

· Meet State and Federal mandates in order to be eligible for disaster relief funds.

· Identify vulnerabilities to natural disasters.

· Review appropriate existing policies and regulations and suggest possible actions and changes that could be made to enhance mitigation capabilities.

· Identify existing community capabilities and goals relevant to mitigation.

· Suggest new mitigation strategies to incorporate as financial resources become available.

III. Background

Chapel Hill is a growing town of 46,798 people (2000 census), estimated to grow to 65,000 by 2020 (Chapel Hill Data Book, 2000). Chapel Hill is a diverse, vibrant, and prosperous community. Vulnerability to natural disasters is a fact of life in the Chapel Hill area, but with careful planning, we can reduce disastrous consequences and recover from events quickly and efficiently.

Chapel Hill contains a wealth of natural resources that add to the character of the community including: surface water (Bolin, Booker, Little, Morgan, and Dry Creeks) and their associated tributaries, lakes, and floodplains, erosion-prone soil types, steep slopes, wetlands, open space, and an expanse of greenways and forests. Protecting and understanding these resources and the function of their ecosystems are crucial to hazard mitigation planning. A hazard mitigation plan that takes environmental characteristics into consideration is necessary for timely and efficient handling of natural disasters.

Natural hazards that threaten the Chapel Hill area include hurricanes, severe winter storms, severe thunderstorms, tornados, drought, fire, and flooding. These events can cause loss of life, property damage, and tremendous economic disruption and inconvenience for Chapel Hill residents, businesses, and government services. Most natural hazard events in Chapel Hill result in flood damage or wind damage. These effects are the main focus of this hazard mitigation plan.

The Town of Chapel Hill has many hazard response programs and policies currently in place. These programs help us to respond quickly and effectively to natural hazards. Hazard response is not mitigation, however these programs do help to reduce the impact of natural hazards on the community. One such policy is the Major Emergency Disaster Operations Plan, approved in May 1997, and updated periodically. This plan maps out the Town’s response to hazards ranging from severe storms to earthquakes. A system of emergency management command and control that is compatible with that of Orange County Emergency Management and the State of North Carolina is established in this Plan. The Town Public Works department has response plans for snow, ice, and debris removal that are flexible and can be easily adjusted to respond quickly and effectively to a snow, wind, or other storm event of any intensity or duration. There is no simple solution to mitigate these types of hazards, but these response plans help lessen their negative effects on the community.

The Town participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Local floodplain maps indicate to residents and business owners of their proximity to floodways and floodplains with 100 and 500 year recurrence intervals. However, these maps are twenty-five years old and are in need of being updated. A floodplain remapping project has begun and we anticipate limited data will be available by January 2003.

Hazard mitigation projects that specifically address flooding are underway in Chapel Hill. Projects include 1721 East Franklin Street and Eastgate Shopping Center. Another is a public Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) project in which three single-family homes on Dickerson Court were purchased by the Town and demolished. A fourth house was purchased as well, although it was not under the FMA grant agreement. These houses are directly in the floodway and had suffered repetitive flood losses. The area will be restored into an extension of the Bolin Creek greenway. The following hazard mitigation plan will address structures like these found to be at the highest risk for flooding and other hazards. The structures will be considered for future mitigation floodproofing actions to prevent to future events from causing substantial damages.

The Town of Chapel Hill is active with Research Triangle Project Impact, a regional cooperative based on three principles: 1) preventive actions must be decided at the local level, 2) private sector participation is vital, and 3) long-term efforts and investments in prevention measures are essential. Through Project Impact, the Town is working to strengthen our region’s awareness, mitigation, and response to natural hazards. There are also many opportunities for new local hazard mitigation programs and to coordinate efforts between local and regional governments and communities which will be discussed in the following plan.

IV. Hazard Identification and Analysis

Chapel Hill residents generally enjoy mild, variable weather. Average temperatures range from 88ºF in summer to 25ºF in winter. Annual rainfall averages 46” providing drinking water and flowing creeks, and providing for wooded neighborhoods and expansive green spaces. Though residents generally appreciate the variable climate, extremes in these weather patterns can create natural disasters.

Over the past ten years, Chapel Hill has experienced a number of natural disasters including Hurricane Fran (1996), the January 2000 winter storm, and the July 2000 flash flood. In 2000 alone, approximated fiscal damages from natural disasters in Chapel Hill totaled $8,200,000-$10,200,000 as a result of the January and July storms. Records of structures experiencing repetitive losses from flooding are on file in the Town of Chapel Hill Engineering department. In the July 2000 storms alone, damaged areas included but were not limited to:

Arlington Street: Houses sustaining damage
Bolin Creek Greenway: Asphalt damage, lost rip-rap along concrete section, shoulder damage, loss of sand in playground area.
Blacktie Drive: House sustained damage.
Brigham Road: Houses with water damage.
Brookwood Condos: Automobile damage in parking lot.
Camelot Village: All first floors flooded 2” to 14”. Office and club house sustained damage.
Cleland Road: OWASA pump station lost ability to function. Road closure.
Dickerson Court: Houses sustaining damage.
Hickory Drive: House sustained damage.
Isley Street: House sustained damage.
Long Leaf Drive: Multiple houses flooded and automobile damage.
Long Leaf Drive Community Swimming Pool: Pool pump flooded.
North Lakeshore Bridge: Severe damage on southeast corner, southwest corner, debris under bridge blocked 80% of flow area.
Old WCHL Basement: Flooded with diesel from generator leaking.
Old Forest Circle: House sustained damage.
Piney Mountain Road: Part of road washed out; 60 feet of water main was exposed and unsupported. Structural support work and installation of water valve left 25 customers without water service early morning July 24^th.
Pinehurst Drive: House sustained damage.
Ridgefield Apartments: Automobile damage in parking lot.
Rogerson Drive: OWASA Pump Station failed.
Shepard Lane Condos: All first floor apartments flooded with 2-3 feet of water.
Stateside Drive: Shoulder erosion.
Umstead Park: 1^st bridge damaged, entrance gate damaged, fence damaged, playground base washed out.
Wesley Drive: House sustained damage.
Whitehead Circle: House sustained damage.
Eastgate Shopping Center: Extensive water damage throughout center, actual damages exceeded $8 million. Two diesel or fuel tanks (200-300 gallons) floated, spilled, and caused further damage in shopping center. Merchandise floated downstream creating extensive litter.

The following figures and tables further identify natural hazards in Chapel Hill. Table 1 summarizes hazard identification information. Frequency, community impact, and exposure ratings were developed as a part of the Town of Chapel Hill Disaster Operations Plan, approved May 1997 Operations Plan, approved in May 1997. The hazard index rating (one is lowest and five is highest) was calculated using the frequency, community impact, and exposure ratings.

Table 1: Hazard Identification and Analysis

Hazard	Frequency	Community Impact	Exposure	Hazard Index Low (1) to High (5)²
Flooding	Moderate¹	Isolated¹	Medium¹	3
Hurricane	Low¹	Wide¹	Medium¹	3
Severe Thunderstorm	Moderate¹	Wide¹	High¹	4.3
Tornado	Low¹	Wide¹	High¹	3.7
Severe Winter Storm	Low¹	Wide¹	Medium¹	3
Drought	Low	Limited	Medium	2
Hail Storm	Moderate	Wide	Medium	2³
¹based on the Town of Chapel Hill Disaster Operations Plan of May 1997
²based on frequency, community impact, and exposure
³based on NCDC historical storm event data

Historical storm event data for Orange County compiled by the National Climatic Data center can be queried by county at http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms.

V. Vulnerability Assessment

Table 2 describes the vulnerability to natural hazards in the Chapel Hill Urban Services Boundary. Tables 3, 4, and 5 list the same information for Bolin, Booker, and Morgan Creek’s 100-year floodplains. Please note that because of the Resource Conservation District Ordinance, additional residences and businesses will not be constructed in these floodplains. Not Available (NA) ratings were given in the tables where the information cannot be determined through available data.

A list of all the critical and hazardous facilities in all of Chapel Hill can be found in Table A1 in the Appendix. Those located in floodplains are noted. The information in Table A1 was used in creating each of the following tables.

Table 2: Area vulnerability for hazard area location: Town of Chapel Hill Urban Services Boundary
Developed Land (15,202.7 acres)				Undeveloped Land (1,602.3 acres)
	Number of People¹	Number of Buildings²	Approximate Value (total property)⁴	# of Future People³	# of Future Buildings⁵	Approximate Future Value⁴ (total property, 2001 dollars)
Residential	48715	22244	$5,605,488,000	4638	1546	$389,595,000
Commercial		2224³	NA		190	NA
Public Buildings		7 ⁶	NA		NA	NA
Sewage Treatment Plant & Pump Stations		21 pumps, 5 water tanks, 2 treatment plants⁶	NA		NA	NA
Hospital		3 main branches, 12-14 total	NA		NA	NA
Schools		14 ⁶	NA		NA	NA
Nursing and Retirement Homes		9 ⁶	NA		NA	NA
Day Care Centers		18 ⁶	NA		NA	NA
Police		1 ⁶	NA		NA	NA
Fire		5 ⁶	NA		NA	NA
Hazardous Facilities		13 ⁶	NA		NA	NA
UNC Properties		458	NA		NA	NA
		25028	$5,605,488,000	4638	1736	$389,595,000
			Total Current + Future	53353	26764	$5,995,083,000
¹Chapel Hill Data Book (Feb. 2000). ²Based on current 2.19 population to house ratio.
³Based on current 10% land to commercial use ratio (Chapel Hill Data Book, Feb. 2000).
⁴Based on estimate of $252,000 per building (Chapel Hill Data Book, Feb. 2000).
⁵Chamber of Commerce estimate. ⁶See Tables A1 and A2.

Table 3: Area Vulnerability Assessment for Hazard Area Location: Bolin Creek 100 year Floodplain
*Under the Resource Conservation District Ordinance, future development in categories listed in this worksheet in the 100 year floodplain of Bolin Creek is not permitted.
Current Development	Number of People¹	Number of Buildings²	Approximate Value
Residential	846	282	Land: $49,927,757
			Structure: $58,732,830
Commercial		37	Land: $10,785,408
			Structure: $23,102,393
Public Buildings		1 ⁶	NA
Sewage Treatment Plants & Pump Stations		2 ⁶	NA
Hospital		0	$0
Schools		0	$0
Nursing and Retirement Homes		0	$0
Day Care Centers		0	$0
Police		0	$0
Fire		0	$0
Hazardous Facilities		0	$0
Total	846	322	$142,548,388
¹Based on an estimation of three people per building. ²Based on 2001 tax roll information.

Table 4: Area Vulnerability Assessment for Hazard Area Location: Booker Creek 100 year Floodplain
*Under the Resource Conservation District Ordinance, future development in categories listed in this worksheet in the 100 year floodplain of Booker Creek is not permitted.
Current Development	Number of People¹	Number of Buildings²	Approximate Value
Residential	786	262	Land: $25,458,334
			Structure: $25,458,596
Commercial		52	Land: $8,266,271
			Structure: $15,182,354
Public Buildings		0	$0
Sewage Treatment Plants & Pump Stations		0	$0
Hospital		0
Schools		0	$0
Police		0	$0
Fire		0	$0
Hazardous Facilities		2 ³	NA
Total	786	314	$74,365,555
¹Based on an estimation of three people per building.²Based on 2001 tax roll information.
³See tables A1 and A2

Table 5: Area Vulnerability Assessment for Hazard Area Location: Morgan Creek 100 year Floodplain
*Under the Resource Conservation District Ordinance, future development in categories listed in this worksheet in the 100 year floodplain of Morgan Creek is not permitted.
Current Development	Number of People¹	Number of Buildings²	Approximate Value (land/structure)
Residential	537	179	Land: $20,456,028
			Structure: $20,456,207
Commercial		0	Land: $0
			Structure: $0
Public Buildings		0	$0
Sewage Treatment Plants & Pump Stations		0	$0
Hospital		0	$0
Schools		2 ³	NA
Nursing and Retirement Homes		1 ³	NA
Day Care Centers		0	$0
Police		0	$0
Fire		0	$0
Hazardous Facilities		1 ³	NA
Total	537	183	$44,912,235
¹Based on estimation of three people per building.²Based on 2001 tax roll information.
³See tables A1 and A2

Figures 1, 2, and 3 on pages 13-15 illustrate floodways and 100 and 500 year floodplains for Booker, Bolin, and Morgan Creeks. Building footprints that fall within these areas are noted. Critical Facilities and important buildings are also mapped. It is important to note that the floodplain and floodway maps are not extremely accurate; they should be updated as soon as possible.

[1] Critical facilities are defined as those facilities critical to the safety of the community during a natural hazard. These include police stations, fire stations, and emergency shelters.