AGENDA #10
MEMORANDUM
TO: Mayor and Town Council
FROM: W. Calvin Horton, Town Manager
SUBJECT: 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan Air Quality Conformity Analysis and Determination Report
DATE: February 14, 2005
This memorandum reviews the findings of the 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan Air Quality Conformity Analysis. (Attachment 1) The Conformity Report is based on the adopted draft 2030 Regional Transportation Plan. The 2030 Transportation Plan will be finalized at the same time as the Air Quality Conformity Analysis is approved. The attached Resolution would provide the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee with comments on the Conformity Analysis.
BACKGROUND
The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee approved the draft 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan on September 29, 2004. The Chapel Hill Town Council approved comments and recommendations to the Transportation Advisory Committee on September 27, 2004. (Attachment 2) Attachment 3 provides a summary of the process undertaken to develop and approve the 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan.
The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Area is part of the larger Triangle Ozone Non-Attainment Area. A map of the Non-Attainment Area is included on page 10 of the Report.
This Area, designated by the State of North Carolina and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 2004, includes the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro and Capital Area Urban Areas. It also includes portions of the several Rural Transportation Planning Organizations encompassing Chatham, Johnson, Person, Granville and Person County. The Burlington-Graham Urban area, which includes a small portion of Orange County, is also included in the Triangle Non-Attainment Area.
Federal air quality regulations require that the adopted long range plans for the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro, Capital Area and Burlington-Graham Urban Areas be used to evaluate air quality conformity. In addition to the Urban Area plans, the Conformity Analysis also includes consideration of transportation projects included in the transportation improvement program for those areas outside the Urban Area boundaries.
Federal regulations require that the area covered by the non-attainment designation show conformity by remaining below the air quality targets for specific years. Failure to achieve these targets will result in a designation of non-conformity, prohibiting the expenditure of all federal transportation funds in the designated areas until conformity is achieved.
DISCUSSION
Draft Findings
The results of the air conformity analysis are summarized in Table 1, page 4 of the Conformity Report. The Draft Report indicates that the Triangle Region has met the air quality regulations. Tables 2 through 10, on pages 5 and 6 of the Report provide additional detail on the air quality performance for each county included in the analysis. The tables for Wake County, Dutchville Township in Granville County and Durham County include a comparison of projected emissions for Nitrogen Oxide (NOx), and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC). In addition the Wake and Durham tables include a comparison of Carbon Monoxide emissions. The inclusion of these detailed pollutants reflects the designation of these areas under previous air quality regulations beginning in 1990. It is anticipated that future air quality reports for the entire Triangle Non- Conformity Area will include detailed budgets and emission analysis for NOx and organic compounds.
Table 8 provides an evaluation of projected air quality emissions for Orange County. The results of the analysis indicate that the projected emissions for the County are well within the air emissions budget for both NOx and organic compounds. The air emissions budgets are set by the North Carolina Division of Air Quality, using federal air quality guidelines. These budgets represent the maximum allowable level of pollutants for a specific year.
The analysis projects that NOx emissions will fall from 6,711 kilograms per day in 2010 to 1,608 kilograms per day in 2030. Pollution from Volatile Organic Compounds will fall from 2,470 in 2010 to 1,478 in 2030. The reductions in projected pollutants in both Durham and Chatham County are similar to the results in Orange County.
Relationship to the 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan
The Air Quality Conformity Report is a part of the process to develop and adopt the 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan. The adopted draft 2030 Plan is used as the basis for completing the Air Quality Conformity Report. The Triangle Regional Model is used to project vehicle miles of travel for specific target years as specified by the federal air quality regulations. The vehicle miles of travel are grouped by speed and road facility type and used to calculate future vehicle emissions. The designation of the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro area as non-attainment requires the development and approval of an air quality conformity report before the 2030 Plan can be completed.
Status of Chapel Hill’s 2030 Plan Recommendations
On September 27, 2004, the Council approved comments and recommendations on the 2030 Plan. (Attachment 2) We have summarized below the Council’s recommendations:
The draft Plan adopted by the Transportation Advisory Committee on September 29, 2004, directly incorporated recommendations 1 through 3. The Town of Carrboro objected to modifying the alignment of the proposed fixed guideway corridor to specify Franklin Street. The Committee requested that Chapel Hill and Carrboro meet to resolve this disagreement.
Regional transportation staff indicated that the fixed guideway alignment included in the 2030 Plan, between the University of North Carolina campus and the Horace Williams property, is intended to be a general corridor that could incorporate either Franklin Street or Cameron Avenue. The designation of a specific corridor requires a major investment study, similar to the study completed between Duke University and the University of North Carolina.
On January 10, 2005, the Council reaffirmed their September 29, 2004, recommendation concerning the fixed guideway alignment.
ANALYSIS
Assessment of Air Quality Conformity
Pollution is estimated using the Triangle Regional Model which provides a projection of vehicle miles traveled at specific speeds on different types of roads. These projections of vehicle miles traveled are used in conjunction with specific pollutant factors for different types of roadways. Generally, traffic traveling at slower speeds, caused by congestion, emit greater levels of pollutants per mile driven. Appendix F provides details on the pollutant levels generated during different peak period by roadway type for each county.
Staff Comment: These reductions seem inconsistent with the results of the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan. Attachment 4 is a comparison of vehicle miles of travel and vehicle hours of travel taken from the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan. The 2030 Regional Plan projects a significant increase in vehicles miles traveled for Durham, Orange and Chatham County. Vehicle hours of travel are anticipated to grow by 82% in Durham County, 85% in Orange County and 140% in that portion of Chatham County in the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area. More importantly, vehicle miles of travel along roadways experiencing congestion, which will result in slower operating speeds, is also expected to increase. In Durham County, the percentage of vehicle miles in congested conditions is expected to increase from 16.45% to 18.70%, while the proportion in Orange County is anticipated to jump from 1.84% to 28.84%. In Chatham County the congested miles will increase from .77% to 8.13%. The increase in proposed congestion within Orange County is the result of continued growth of housing and employment, particularly in the Chapel Hill-Carrboro area.
It is difficult to understand how pollutants can be projected to decrease in 2030 when all indications suggest significant increases in vehicle miles and in levels of congestion. We suggest that the Conformity Report include the data on vehicle miles traveled from the 2030 Plan and provide an explanation of how air quality can be projected to improve while congestion and vehicle miles traveled are expected to increase.
We understand that part of the explanation for reductions in future levels of pollution are assumed improvements in vehicle inspection programs, improvements in vehicle engine technologies and the development of cleaner burning fuels. While we recognize that some of these improvements may be implemented, we question whether the implementation of these factors can offset the significant increases in congestion and vehicle miles traveled. A explanation of the impact of anticipated technology improvements and projected increases in congestion should be included in the Conformity Report.
Vehicle Miles Traveled Normalization
On page 23 is a discussion of the vehicle miles traveled normalization procedure incorporated into the Conformity Analysis. The normalization process attempts to reconcile the vehicle miles of travel projected by the Regional Model and observed vehicle miles in the 2002 base year. Normalization is necessary due to differences between the vehicle miles projected by the Triangle Regional Model and projections developed by the North Carolina Department of Transportation of vehicle miles traveled using the Highway Performance Monitoring System. Normalization reduces the amount of vehicle travel projected by the model to conform to projections developed using survey data. This normalization resulted in a significant reduction in vehicle miles traveled in Wake County.
Comment: While we agree that the lack of base year data for the 2030 Plan has resulted in the need to utilize this normalization procedure, we are concerned that continued use of the normalization process undermines confidence in the regional transportation model. We suggest that a more detailed description of the normalization process should be included in Appendix G.
We also recommend that the development of the 2040 Plan include more accurate collection of base year data to minimize or eliminate the need for normalization.
Off-Model Analysis
Also included in the calculation of air quality impacts is “off-model” analysis to assess the impact of incident management programs. The off-model assessment is described on page 24. The detailed summary of the incident management program is included in Appendix H. The Triangle Region is given air quality credits for having incident management programs available along specific corridors.
Comment: We recognize that the Triangle Regional model is unable to assess some factors that influence air quality impacts. The Report identifies several off-model factors that can be incorporated into the air quality analysis, including transportation demand management programs and land use policies that result in more compact, transit and pedestrian oriented development. We recommend that the 2030 Report should include a more detailed discussion of how the impacts of the incident management program were assessed and what standards were used to determine the degree of impact.
We also suggest that future air quality analysis include off-model evaluation of other elements such as travel demand management and land use policies. Detailed quantitative procedures should be developed to assess the impact of these factors.
NEXT STEPS
The Transportation Advisory Committee will hold a public forum on the draft Conformity Report on February 9, 2005. The Committee will continue to receive public comment until their meeting on March 9, 2005. The Council’s comments and recommendations will be forwarded to the Transportation Advisory Committee for their consideration. The Committee is expected to consider approval of the draft Conformity Report on March 9, 2005. Once the Committee approves the Conformity Report it will be submitted to federal transportation agencies for review and approval.
RECOMMENDATION
Town Manager’s Recommendation: That the Council adopt the attached Resolution, providing the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee with comment on the Triangle Air Quality Conformity Analysis. We suggest the following comments:
ATTACHMENTS
A RESOLUTION PROVIDING THE DURHAM-CHAPEL HILL-CARRBORO TRANSPORTATION ADVISORY COMMITTEE WITH COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT TRIANGLE AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY ANALYSIS AND DETERMINATION REPORT (2005-02-14/R-15)
WHEREAS, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee has approved a draft 2030 Regional Transportation Plan; and
WHEREAS, the 2030 Regional Plan has been used to prepare the draft Triangle Air Quality Conformity Analysis and Determination; and
WHEREAS, the Transportation Advisory Committee has released the draft Triangle Air Quality Conformity Analysis and Determination Report; and.
WHEREAS, the Council has reviewed the Triangle Air Quality Conformity Analysis and Determination Report;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Council of the Town of Chapel Hill that the Council provides the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee with the following comments and recommendations.
This the 14th day of February, 2005