MEMORANDUM

AGENDA #2b

MEMORANDUM

TO: Mayor and Town Council

FROM: W. Calvin Horton, Town Manager

SUBJECT: Public Forum: Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan

DATE: September 13, 2004

This memorandum reviews the draft Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan. The purpose of tonight’s Public Forum is to receive public comment on the draft 2030 Plan. The Council is anticipated to take action on the 2030 Draft Plan on September 27, 2004.

BACKGROUND

The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area adopted a 2025 Long Range Transportation Plan in May 2003. Federal regulations require that the Plan be updated no later than January 1, 2006. In order to meet both an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) deadline of April 2005 and a requirement to update the Regional Plan by January 2006, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area has proposed to update the 2025 Plan and prepare a 2030 Plan. The schedule proposes that the Transportation Advisory Committee approve the 2030 Plan in September 2004.

The federal Clean Air Act requires the EPA to designate areas as “non-attainment” or “attainment” following the adoption of new ambient air quality standards. The EPA has designated the Research Triangle Region, including both the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro and Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Area, which includes Wake County, as part of the greater Triangle non-attainment area.

Areas that are designated as non attainment must develop and adopt a 20 year long range transportation plan that can reduce the amount of air pollutants and meet a future air quality “budget”. This budget is the maximum amount of allowable air pollution that is allowed in the region between 2002 and 2030. Non-attainment areas that fail to meet the air quality budgets are designated non-conforming and have all federal transportation funds frozen until such time as they adopt a plan that shows conformity. The federal regulations require that the Triangle Region complete an air quality conformity plan by April 2005. The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization and the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization will update their existing 2025 Plans, including air quality analysis, to year 2030 to meet this requirement.

Related federal transportation regulations require that regional transportation plans be updated every three years. The existing 2025 Plan must be updated by May 2006. The adoption of a new 2030 Plan will meet both the federal air quality requirements and the need to update the existing 2025 Plan.

The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee adopted socio-economic projections in February 2004. Since that time, regional staff has reviewed the 2025 highway, transit, bicycle and pedestrian networks for use with the Triangle Regional Model.

The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee released the draft 2030 Plan for public comment in June 2004. The Chapel Hill Town Council received the draft Report on June 30, 2004 and referred the Plan to the Town’s Transportation Board, Planning Board and Horace Williams Committee for comment.

Urban Area staff held a public workshop on the 2030 Plan in Chapel Hill on August 3, 2004, and in Durham on August 10, 2004. The Transportation Advisory Committee held a public hearing on the draft Plan on August 25, 2004.

The flow chart below summarizes the process for the development of the 2030 Plan. We are currently in the development of the revised draft, with approval of the final draft Plan anticipated by September 29, 2004. After review of the draft Plan by federal and State air quality agencies final adoption of the 2030 by the Transportation Advisory Committee is expected in March 2005.

KEY ISSUES

We have identified below several key issues related to the 2030 Plan:

Status of 2030 Report

The draft 2030 Plan (Attachment 1) released in June 2004 is currently being revised. The complete revised document is not available for this Public Forum. Several elements of the June 2004 draft Plan have been revised and we have included them in this memorandum. These include revised capacity/deficiency maps and financial analysis.

Comment: The information released in June 2004 and the subject of the August 2004 Public Hearing, has been revised and the results of these revisions are in some cases significantly different from those included in the June draft Plan. There will be little time for a public and staff review of this revised information prior to the scheduled date for approval of the Plan by the Transportation Advisory Committee, September 29, 2004. Although the Transportation Advisory Committee has the option to delay approval of the Plan beyond September 29, 2004, any delay creates a risk that we would not meet the April 2005 deadline for air quality conformity. Failure to meet this deadline would result in a lapse of federal transportation funding.

Differences in Capacity/Deficiency Maps

We have received copies of the revised capacity/deficiency maps (Attachment 3) and compared them to the maps distributed are part of the June 2004 draft Plan. The overall impacts of the revised maps show a general improvement to projected roadway levels of service throughout the Chapel Hill area. These improvements include:

· Fordham Boulevard- Franklin Street to Smith Level Road

· NC54- Fordham Boulevard to I-40

· South Columbia Street, Fordham Boulevard to Manning Drive

· Estes Drive-North Greensboro to Franklin Street

We have included in Attachment 3 a side by side comparison of the June and September versions of the 2030 maps.

Comment: Without further review and analysis we cannot explain the differences in traffic volumes between the June and September 2004 capacity/deficiency maps. We did revise the model network in the area of Estes Drive and Airport Road and this may explain the changes in the model results in that area. At this time we are unaware of any other changes to the model network in the Chapel Hill area that might explain the differences.

2030 Financial Plan Element

Attachment 5 includes the most current information for the Financial Plan element of the draft 2030 Plan. The estimates of both revenues and expenses have been revised from the Plan released in June 2004. The June 2004 Financial Plan projected a shortfall of approximately $719,325,000. Revised financial estimates were provided at the August 25, 2004 Public Hearing and projected a shortfall of $437,046,000. Since that time the financial estimates have been revised and are included in Attachment 5. These new projections estimate a shortfall of $961,511,000. Attachment 5 also includes a summary of changes to the most recent Financial Plan. The Plan includes the assumption that two “non-traditional” source of revenue, increases in the gas tax and vehicle registration fees, would be implemented by 2030.

Comment: The 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan must be financially balanced, with projected expenses matched to anticipated revenues. The current draft 2030 Plan does not meet this requirement and modifications to the Plan will be necessary to bring revenues and expenditures into balance. These revisions will be necessary before the Transportation Advisory Committee approves the draft Plan on September 29, 2004.

Air Quality Analysis

The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan will be evaluated for compliance with the new federal air quality standards. The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Plan will be combined with the Plan for the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization for the air quality analysis. The Transportation Advisory Committee had hoped that a preliminary air quality assessment would be completed in August 2004.

Comment: The preliminary air quality analysis has not been completed. Although the preliminary analysis would have been revised during the formal federal and State review, if the current Plan had failed the preliminary analysis the Urban Area would have had an opportunity to make revisions within the current schedule.

SUMMARY OF REPORT

Attachment 1 is the draft 2030 Plan. The Plan includes:

· A summary of the socio-economic forecasts, transportation revenues and expenses and a list of transportation projects.

· An assessment of 2002 and projected 2030 traffic volumes.

· A comparison of various criteria, such as vehicle miles traveled, vehicle hours traveled and total trips between the Triangle Region, the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area, Durham County, Orange County, Chatham County.

The Report, including color versions of the maps, is available on-line at the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area website, www.dchcmpo.org.

Attachment 2 includes four maps showing actual 2002 and projected 2030 daily traffic volumes. The maps compare the traffic volumes to roadway capacities. This comparison generates a level of service for the roadway, represented by green (least congested) through red (most congested). The maps include:

· 2002 Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area Capacity Analysis

· 2030 Projected Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area Capacity Analysis

· 2030 Projected Chapel Hill Capacity Analysis

· 2030 Projected Capital Area Urban Area Capacity Analysis

The 2002 and 2030 Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro capacity analysis maps are comparable with the maps included on page 38 and 39 of the draft 2030 Plan (Attachment 1). These maps compare the base year traffic volumes for 2002 to the 2030 projected volumes.

The 2030 Chapel Hill Traffic Capacity Analysis map provides a more detailed picture of southern Orange County in 2030. The results of the 2030 analysis projects significant congestion along major corridors such as Fordham Boulevard, U.S. 15-501, N.C. 54 and Estes Drive. I-40 is also projected to experience daily congestion.

South Columbia is projected to experience significant congestion, while Weaver Dairy Road is anticipated to be uncongested. Daily ridership on Chapel Hill Transit is projected to double between 2002 and 2030.

In the 2002 and 2030 maps traffic volumes are represented by the relative width of each line, while the projected level of daily congestion is represented by color coding. Red represents a facility with daily volumes at or above 120% of its level of service E capacity. Volume to capacity ratios in this range suggest significant congestion, particularly during peak hours.

The 2030 Projected Capital Area Urban Area Capacity Analysis map includes a detail of the Capital Area Urban Area. In order to allow a detailed view of the corridors in the Capital Area Urban Area this map does not reflect different traffic volumes through the width of the lines. This map is coded with the volume to capacity analysis, illustrated in the colors, ranging from red (most congested) to dark green (least congested). This analysis suggests that this portion of Wake County will experience significant levels of congestion in 2030.

Attachment 3 includes the most recent 2002 and 2030 volume to capacity analysis. This revised analysis shows reductions in anticipated congestion along several Chapel Hill corridors, including:

· Fordham Boulevard- Franklin Street to Smith Level Road

· N.C. 54- Fordham Boulevard to I-40

· South Columbia Street, Fordham Boulevard to Manning Drive

· Estes Drive-North Greensboro to Franklin Street

We have also provided several maps (Attachment 4) providing more detail on the proposed transit system serving Chapel Hill. These maps include:

· Fixed Guideway and High Capacity Transit Corridors

· Fixed Guideway and Rail Station Feeders

· 2030 Proposed Transit System

Revisions to the draft 2030 Plan are ongoing and include revised transit system networks and revised financial information. A revised version of the draft 2030 Plan will be provided to the Transportation Advisory Committee on September 22, 2004.

NEXT STEPS

The draft 2030 Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Regional Transportation Plan was presented to the Transportation Advisory Committee on June 23, 2004. The Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee will be presented with the final draft Plan on September 22, 2004. The Transportation Advisory Committee held a public hearing on the draft 2030 Plan on August 25, 2004 and agreed to hold open the public comment period until September 29, 2004, at which time it is anticipated that the Committee will approve a final 2030 Plan.

Upon adoption by the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Transportation Advisory Committee, anticipated for September 29, 2004, the Plan will be reviewed by State and federal transportation agencies. Their review is expected to begin in September and be completed in February or March 2005. The Transportation Advisory Committee is scheduled to adopt the final 2030 Plan in March 2005.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Planning Board:

The Planning Board voted 6-1 to recommend the Council adopt the Draft 2030 Regional Transportation Plan, with the following comments: (Attachment 6).

· The Board endorses the idea of spending as much funding on transit as possible.

· The Board recommends that the Town do everything possible to educate the public and to emphasize the need for public transportation within both the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro and Raleigh Metropolitan Planning Organization areas.

· The Board recommends the 2030 Plan map show a direct fixed guideway connection from Chapel Hill to the Research Triangle Park.

Transportation Board:

The Transportation Board voted 6-0 to recommend the Council endorse the draft 2030 Plan. (Attachment 7).

Horace Williams Committee:

Horace Williams Citizens Committee members made the following comments in their review of the draft 2030 Long Range Transportation Plan:

Refer the Council to the Transportation and Land Use Principles section in the Principles, Goals and Strategies for the Horace Williams Property report accepted by the Town Council on March 22, 2004 (Attachment 8).
Consider the impacts of Carolina North on traffic planning.
Use transportation modeling software to examine traffic impacts related to the development plans for Carolina North.

Manager’s Recommendation: The analysis presented in this memorandum is preliminary. We expect additional revisions to the Plan over the next several days. We will continue to review the revised draft Plan as additional information becomes available. We anticipate the release of a complete revised Plan for the September 22, 2004 Transportation Advisory Committee meeting. We will provide the Council with copies of this revised Plan when it becomes available and provide a more complete evaluation of the Plan and recommendation on September 27, 2004.

ATTACHMENTS

Draft 2030 Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Regional Transportation Plan (p. 8). Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5
June 2004, 2002 and 2030 Capacity/Deficiency Maps (p. 55).

· 2002 Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area Traffic Volumes

· 2030 Projected Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro Urban Area Traffic Volumes

· 2030 Projected Chapel Hill Traffic Volumes